How to use this backtest
- Pick the years, a lump sum at the start and/or a monthly SIP.
- Choose a ready-made mix or set your own: Indian equity, gold and US equity; the rest goes into fixed income (PPF or a Post Office deposit).
- Choose whether to rebalance back to your mix once a year, and which Indian index to use.
- Read the result, compare it with the yardsticks, then look at the grid of every start year to see how much the timing mattered.
How it is worked out
Each year, the money in each part of the mix grows by that year's actual return. A SIP instalment paid during the year gets the part of the year's return for the months it was invested. With yearly rebalancing, the mix is reset at every year end; without it, the parts drift and only new money follows your mix.
Return a year (XIRR) allows for when each rupee went in.After inflation takes out India's consumer price inflation over the same years. Biggest fall compares year-end values only, so falls within a year that recovered by December do not show.
Example: ₹1,00,000 plus ₹10,000 a month in the Balanced mix from 2006 to 2025 (20 years) — ₹25,00,000 put in — grew to ₹1,10,56,491, a return of 12.67% a year, or 5.78% after inflation.
Where the data comes from
Calendar-year returns in rupees, 1992 to 2025, before tax and costs, last checked on 8 October 2026.
| Series | From | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 (total return) | 2000 | NSE Indices, NIFTY 50 Total Returns Index, last trading day of each December (niftyindices.com, Historical Data → Total returns Index Values) |
| Sensex (with dividends) | 1992 | BSE, SENSEX yearly closing value and dividend yield (bseindia.com, Indices → Historical Data, yearly); dividends added as the average of the start and end dividend yields |
| Gold (in rupees) | 1992 | Year-end LBMA gold price returns in US dollars (A. Damodaran, NYU Stern, histretSP.xls, January 2026), converted at the year-end rupee–dollar rate (US Federal Reserve H.10, FRED series DEXINUS) |
| US S&P 500 (in rupees) | 1992 | S&P 500 total return in US dollars, dividends included (A. Damodaran, NYU Stern, histretSP.xls, January 2026), converted at the year-end rupee–dollar rate (FRED DEXINUS) |
| PPF | 1992 | National Savings Institute, Ministry of Finance: PPF interest rate since inception (nsiindia.gov.in); monthly interest added each 31 March |
| Post Office 1-year deposit | 1992 | National Savings Institute: interest rates on National Savings Schemes, 1-year Time Deposit (nsiindia.gov.in); renewed every 1 January, compounded quarterly |
| Inflation | 1992 | World Bank, FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG (consumer prices, annual %) |
PPF here uses PPF's interest rates only; the ₹1.5 lakh yearly limit and the lock-in are not applied. Past returns do not predict future ones — use this to understand risk, not to forecast.
Frequently asked questions
How often have Indian shares lost money?
Often over one year, rarely over long periods. With dividends, the Sensex fell in 7 of the 34 calendar years from 1992 to 2025 (worst -51.8%). Over every five-year stretch it lost money 1 times out of 30, and over every ten-year stretch 0 times out of 25 — the worst ten years still returned 4.1% a year.
Does adding gold to a portfolio help?
Gold often rises when shares fall, so it can soften the bad years. A lump sum in the Balanced mix (50% Indian equity, 10% gold, 10% US, 30% fixed income) from 2006 to 2025 returned 13.04% a year with a biggest fall of -22.6%. Moving the gold into Indian equity gives 12.62% a year and a biggest fall of -30.5%.
Should I rebalance every year?
Rebalancing sells what has done well and buys what has lagged, keeping your risk where you chose it. For the Balanced mix from 2006 to 2025, rebalancing once a year returned 13.04% a year; never rebalancing returned 12.48%, and the mix drifted towards whatever had grown most.
Why is the gold return different from Indian gold prices?
It is the international (London) price converted into rupees at the year-end exchange rate. Gold bought in India also carries import duty and GST, and changes in the duty — such as the increases in 2013 — move Indian prices in ways this series does not show. Gold ETFs and sovereign gold bonds track Indian prices.
Why does the history start in 1992 (Sensex) or 2000 (Nifty 50)?
The official Nifty 50 total-return index starts in mid-1999, so its first full calendar year is 2000. BSE's yearly Sensex archive starts at the end of 1991, so 1992 is the first year with a return. We use only official or widely used datasets — see the sources below.
Are these returns after tax?
No. They are before tax and before fund costs. Equity fund costs (expense ratios) are typically 0.1–1% a year, and tax depends on how long you hold and your slab. PPF interest is tax-free; deposit interest is taxed at your slab.
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Last updated . For information only — not financial advice. Check the final figures with your lender or bank.